Agricultural Risk & Sensitivity Analysis

1. Basic Information

Farm Name

Crop Type

2. Variable Inputs (The "What-If" Drivers)

Users will input three scenarios for their two biggest risks: Yield and Market Price.

Variable

Worst-Case (Low)t

Expected (Mid)

Best-Case (High)

Yield (Bushels/Acre)
140
180
210
Market Price (per Bushel)
$4.50
$5.50
$6.80

3. Production Cost

Input your cost structure below to generate the data for the 'What-If' analysis table.

Cost Type

Description

Amount (per Acre)

Variable Opearting Costs

Seed
$150.00
 
Fertilizer
$50.00
 
Chemical
$50.00
 
Fuel
$50.00
 
Utilities
$50.00
 
Labor (Seasonal/Hired Labor)
$50.00
 
Equipment
$50.00
 
 
 
 

Total Variable Operating Costs

$450.00
 
 
 

Fixed Overhead Costs

Land Rent/Debt Service
$200.00
 
Equipment Depreciation
$50.00
 
Insurance
$50.00
 
 
 
 

Total Fixed Overhead Costs

$300.00
 
 
 
 

Total Production Cost

$750.00

4. Financial Projection Table

This table now uses the separation of costs to show the farmer exactly where their "break-even" points are.


Gross Revenue = Yield * Price

Operating Profit = Revenue - Total Operating Variable Cost

Final Net Profit = Revenue - Total Production Cost

Scenario

Gross Revenue

Operating Profit

Final Net Profit

Worst-Case
$630.00
$180.00
-$120.00
Baseline
$990.00
$540.00
$240.00
Best-Case
$1,428.00
$978.00
$678.00

The Breakeven Yield (Your "Safety Net")

How many bushels must I produce to cover all expenses at current market prices?

Breakeven Yield = Total Production Costs (Fixed + Variable) / Market Price (Baseline)

136.36

Insight for the Farmer: If your historical average yield is 180, but your breakeven is 136.3, you have a 43.7 bushel safety margin.


Risk Status Alert (Visual Logic)

The Logic Table:

  • Less than $0: CRITICAL (Loss Predicted)
  • $0 to $300: CAUTION (Thin Margins)
  • Greater than $300: HEALTHY (Profitable)

Net Profit

Risk Alert

-$120.00
Critical (Loss Predicted)
$240.00
Caution (Thin Margins)
$678.00
Healthy (Profitable)

Form Template Insights

Please remove this form template insight sections before publishing.


To help your form owners (the farmers or agribusiness consultants) understand the value and the mechanics of this template, you can provide this "Form Intelligence & Logic Guide." This explains the business "why" and the mathematical "how" behind the tool.

Form Template Insight: Agricultural Sensitivity Analysis

What is this form for?

In agriculture, your "paycheck" is determined by variables you cannot control: the weather and the global market. This form acts as a financial flight simulator. Instead of looking at a single, optimistic profit estimate, it allows you to see a range of possibilities.

By separating Operating (Variable) Costs from Fixed (Overhead) Costs, the form helps you identify your "True Breakeven" point. It answers the critical question: "At what yield and price point am I actually losing money after the bank and the land are paid?"


Formula Breakdown

This form leverages our spreadsheet engine to turn simple inputs into professional risk metrics. Here is a look at the core logic used:


1. The Cost Structure (The Foundation)

The form calculates a Total Production Cost to ensure the analysis isn't just about seeds and fertilizer.

  • Formula: Total Production Cost = Total Variable Operating Costs + Total Fixed Overhead Costs
  • Example : $450.00 + $300.00 = $750.00


2. The Sensitivity Matrix (The "What-If")

The matrix uses the Final Net Profit formula across three different scenarios:

  • Formula: (Yield * Price) - Total Production Cost
  • Worst-Case Calculation: (140 * $4.50) - $750.00 = -$120.00
  • Baseline Calculation: (180 * $5.50) - $750.00 = $240.00

3. The Breakeven Yield (The "Safety Net")

This is the most critical number for a farmer. It tells you the minimum production level needed to cover all costs at the current expected price.

  • Formula: =Total Production Cost / Baseline Price
  • In this Template: $750 / $5.50 = 136.3 bushels/acre.
  • The Insight: If your land historically only produces 130 bushels, this formula alerts you that your current plan is high-risk before you ever put a seed in the ground.

4. Risk Status Alert (Automated Advisory)

We use the IF function to provide an instant visual health check. This turns data into an actionable "Stop/Go" signal.

  • Formula: IF(Net Profit<0, "Critical (Loss Predicted)", IF(AND(Net Profit>0, Net Profit<300), "Caution (Thin Margins)", IF(Net Profit>=300, "Healthy (Profitable)", "")))
  • Net Profit values are located in cells A1, A2, and A3.

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